I have just finished my report on the above. It was the worst event I've attended for quite sometime for all sorts of reasons.
The report will go live on Friday.
Here's a little teaser...
Screenshot_2025-09-23_15-27-33.png
I hope this doesn't sound wrong but I look forward to reading your thoughts on Friday
Sounds OK to me Dave. 8) ;)
Genuinely interested :)
It's mostly my standard report so don't expect too much. I've only delayed publication so I can double check the wording.
As the teaser shows, I think I've reached a tipping point. Something has to change, but I genuinely don't know what I'm going to do in 2026.
Without reading your thoughts first, I am minded to remember some of my early years wargaming (shows). Back then you could turn up with an army in tow and have a casual game or 2 with like minded fellows without any time pressures or suchlike
Had a similar 'road home from Damascus' moment a couple of years ago. 3 or 4 hours driving home in the rain after six full-on games tends to have that effect. I backed off, and went to very few tournaments for a year...and then went back into it again , with a fresh start making all the difference. 🙃
Looking forward to reading the post, come Friday 👍🏼
Sounds like you had a bad experience tournaments can be a bit like speed dating and when you come up against more experienced players you often feel like you are being rushed and you can feel them getting frustrated with you, not sure if this is what soured your day. Outside of tournaments I have found it nigh on impossible to find anyone who wants to play outside of their own social group - even within clubs.
Its a bugbear of mine...being rushed
Now live...
https://blog.vexillia.me.uk/2025/09/adlg-northern-league-round-4-manchester.html
Nice report even if the vibe wasn't great for you. I agree that I wouldn't like to feel rushed either
The comments in the blog about the effectiveness of different armies makes me wonder whether anyone has done any statistical analysis to try and balance the different army lists.
Actually, this makes me want to read a set of wargames rules, and learn more about how they work. Still no desire to paint figures, I'm afraid...
Quote from: Cantabrigian on Sep 29, 2025, 10:31 AMThe comments in the blog about the effectiveness of different armies makes me wonder whether anyone has done any statistical analysis to try and balance the different army lists.
https://blog.vexillia.me.uk/2022/09/adlg-v4-super-armies.html
https://blog.vexillia.me.uk/2022/09/adlg-size-matters.html
Live dashboard (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSnZfGxT9jH27M7rfoBcFVAl8wEiltjwbDc2qy0PZpx9kU5ziGr7u2jN5emta16t0361nPBiyxuWkcV/pubhtml?gid=1625468377&single=true)
And indeed worthy additional thoughts about adlg...Martin is very much your man for this!
Quote from: vexillia on Sep 29, 2025, 10:59 AMhttps://blog.vexillia.me.uk/2022/09/adlg-v4-super-armies.html
https://blog.vexillia.me.uk/2022/09/adlg-size-matters.html
Live dashboard (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSnZfGxT9jH27M7rfoBcFVAl8wEiltjwbDc2qy0PZpx9kU5ziGr7u2jN5emta16t0361nPBiyxuWkcV/pubhtml?gid=1625468377&single=true)
Fascinating stuff, thanks!
I think that a lot of what you're seeing is regression to the mean - with small numbers of samples you see a lot more random variation. For example, take your V3 chart, and put your finger on it to cover up any results with less than 125 games, and the relationship looks a lot less clear.
Quote from: Cantabrigian on Sep 29, 2025, 11:46 AMI think that a lot of what you're seeing is regression to the mean - with small numbers of samples you see a lot more random variation. For example, take your V3 chart, and put your finger on it to cover up any results with less than 125 games, and the relationship looks a lot less clear.
I agree. I made the same point myself, many times. With a small number of games (and probably players and opponents) the average is all over the place.
The important thing is that the mean is 50% suggestive of few, if any, anomalies in the armies once player & opponent factors have been smoothed out.
I tried to get over to the regression to the mean thing by separating the armies into buckets depending on how many games they'd been used in, then taking the average efficiency for each bucket.
I'm not sure if any meaningful conclusions can be drawn from this graph.
And that's hoping that I got the right data source...
Quote from: Cantabrigian on Oct 04, 2025, 06:09 PMAnd that's hoping that I got the right data source...
Looking at the results, you've analysed the combined results from V3 and V4.
I think they belong to separate data sets as the rules changed between versions.
Quote from: vexillia on Oct 04, 2025, 06:40 PMLooking at the results, you've analysed the combined results from V3 and V4.
I think they belong to separate data sets as the rules changed between versions.
I'd imagine that you're right.